IRV: Is it legal in Connecticut? Can our scanners compute it?

Recently we posted and commented on an article in The Day, covering the Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) proposal for New London. The article quoted Secretary of the State Bysiewicz on the constitutionality of the IRV and if our AccuVote-OS scanners could be used for an IRV election. The post prompted comments and the need for more complete answers. We queried the Secretary of the State’s Office and Jeff Silvestro, General Manager of LHS Associates. Mr. Silvestro responded:

Recently we posted and commented on an article in The Day, covering the Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) proposal for New London.  The article quoted Secretary of the State Bysiewicz on the constitutionality of the IRV and if our AccuVote-OS scanners could be used for an IRV election.  The post prompted comments and the need for more complete answers.  <read>

We queried the Secretary of the State’s Office and Jeff Silvestro, General Manager of LHS Associates.  Mr. Silvestro responded:

There are two parts to this answer:

1. Yes, the AVOS can handle IRV. We currently run similar elections in Cambridge, MA and have previously run IRV elections in Burlington, VT. Burlington no longer runs IRV since the citizens voted to move away from this method last year.

2. No, it cannot be done in CT. In order for the AVOS to handle an IRV election we would need to use software other than GEMS, currently GEMS is the only software certified for use in CT. Also an older version of firmware would need to be installed in each AVOS unit, this older firmware is also not currently certified in CT. Lastly, the ballot layout for an IRV election would not match the current specification used for ballot layout in CT.

The Secretary of the State’s Office responded:

When the Secretary served as Chair of the Government Administration and Elections Committee in the Legislature, she was open to conducting hearings on this issue. During her tenure as Secretary, she has remained opened to exploration of the various types of run off voting that have been put forward by various groups. While the office would defer to the Attorney General for an interpretation of law, we do believe that there are constitutional and statutory issues that would need to be examined and addressed, such as minority representation, in implementation. Additionally, the current certified voting machines cannot accommodate preferential voting, and changes to firmware would be required, along with new certifications, both federally and at the state level.

In summary, it is clear that legally our machines cannot support fully counting IRV elections for the foreseeable future. And there are several Constitutional issues and statutory issues which may well make IRV illegal or unconstitutional at this time.

There are two parts to this answer:
1. Yes, the AVOS can handle IRV.  We currently run similar elections in Cambridge, MA and have previously run IRV elections in Burlington, VT.  Burlington no longer runs IRV since the citizens voted to move away from this method last year.
2. No, it cannot be done in CT.  In order for the AVOS to handle an IRV election we would need to use software other than GEMS, currently GEMS is the only software certified for use in CT.  Also an older version of firmware would need to be installed in each AVOS unit,  this older firmware is also not currently certified in CT.  Lastly, the ballot layout for an IRV election would not match the current specification used for ballot layout in CT.

Podcast: Democratic candidates debate voting on WATR

We were about to write a post about how little voting and voting integrity discussion we have heard in the Secretary of the State campaigns so far. Yet, yesterday there was a joint appearance/debate between the Democratic Primary candidates Gerry Garcia and Denise Merrill which focused manly on voting issues, including voting integrity

We were about to write a post about how little voting and voting integrity discussion we have heard in the Secretary of the State campaigns so far. Yet. yesterday there was a joint appearance/debate between the Democratic Primary candidates Gerry Garcia and Denise Merrill which focused manly on voting issues, including voting integrity. <listen>

The candidates discuss early voting, the Citizen’s Election Program, increasing turnout, optical scanners, absentee vote fraud, popular election of the President, along with their qualifications/motivations, creating jobs, record keeping, business registration, and the state budget.

Opinion: We were pleasantly surprised to hear the focus on voting issues; to hear  in several cases that the candidates agree with CTVotersCount positions; support some of our recommendations; and are in sync with our reasoning. On the other hand we note that in many areas we differ with either one or both candidates. There are many issues where the devil is in the details, deserving much more in depth consideration than is possible for candidates, media, and the voters during a modern campaign.

IRV New London: Residents, Registrar, and Candidate concerns

“Instant Runoff Voting is a well intended idea, but does not work as advertised in real life elections. For that reason, several jurisdictions have rejected IRV after one or two implementations.”

“There’s no point to it, Why go to something like this? Most people don’t understand it. Most people don’t want it.”

A Registrar of Voter’s and Citizens Views: An article in the Day: <read>

Complex voting proposal in charter criticized
By Matt Collette Day Staff Writer
Registrar raises issue of legality in two changes

New London – Several residents expressed concern – or at least confusion – over a proposed system where voters would rank mayor candidates at a public hearing Tuesday night on proposed charter changes.

Registrar of Voters Bill Giesing said he was concerned that the rank voting plan – which would allow for instant results rather than a runoff election at a later date – as well as one that would have four city councilors represent specific wards, would violate state law.

“I just want to bring this to your attention,” Giesing said. “I think this is something serious you should address.” He said communities are prohibited by state statute from defining wards.

David Hayes, who lives on Ocean Avenue, called rank voting a “totally unacceptable” way to determine who will be the mayor.

“There’s no point to it,” Hayes said. “Why go to something like this? Most people don’t understand it. Most people don’t want it.”

Charter Review Commission Chairman Robert Grills said rank voting would allow for the mayor to be selected by a majority of voters in the main election, when turnout is higher, than in runoff elections. It would also ensure that the winner would be the candidate supported by the majority of voters, not just the largest plurality, he said.

The meeting was supposed to start with an overview of the proposed changes, but the hearing began without a formal presentation because computer problems prevented Grills from loading a PowerPoint presentation.

“Most of you, it seems, have read most or all of the charter as we have put it forward,” Grills said before moving directly into the public hearing.

Grills said he expected that the commission would have another meeting to address concerns from the public hearing before handing its draft over to City Clerk Michael Tranchida and the City Council, which may put charter revisions up for a vote by the November election.

“I don’t think this should be rushed to the ballot in November,” said Dorothy Mansfield, another Ocean Avenue resident. “I’d rather see a fine, finished product with all the I’s dotted and T’s crossed.”

One member of the commission, Minerva Dudley-Cook, said she hoped the charter review process would not be rushed toward a November vote and instead take the full 16 months it was given to consider changes to the city charter.

“I don’t think we are where the chairman says we are,” Dudley-Cook said. “I think we should take the full 16 months.”

Winning Candidate’s View: Voting integrity advocate describes experience of a winning candidate in North Carolina in letter to New London:

Honorable New London City Councilors:

Complex voting proposal in charter criticized
by Matt Collette 07/28/2010
http://www.theday.com/article/20100728/NWS01/307289880/1019&town=

Please accept these additional comments regarding regarding New London’s consideration of adopting instant runoff voting to elect your mayor.

I am writing to you from North Carolina, where IRV was tested in 2 cities in 2007 and 1 in 2009.

Instant Runoff Voting is a well intended idea, but does not work as advertised in real life elections. For that reason, several jurisdictions have rejected IRV after one or two implementations. Instant Runoff Voting was implemented and rejected by Sunnyvale, California, Burlington, Vermont, Pierce Co Washington, Cary North Carolina. . Aspen will put a measure offering to repeal IRV in Nov. Aspen Colorado (will hold another vote in Nov 2010 to make repeal binding) http://instantrunoff.blogspot.com/2010/05/instant-runoff-voting-rejected-by.html

*Don Frantz, the only person elected by instant runoff voting in North Carolina speaks out *

Don points out that with instant runoff voting there is voter confusion, lack of confidence in the system, and often the result of IRV is a plurality “win”. Don, the only person ever elected with IRV votes says IRV is not worth it. Don says “To me the number one concern is election integrity. If we can’t trust the election process we’ve got, I don’t care what it costs. I don’t care what the turnout is.” Cary ultimately reverted back to majority 50% + 1 and traditional runoff elections.

(Don Frantz is currently a Cary Town Council Member running for a state legislative office… New London may or may not experience the technical difficulties of IRV that Cary NC did, there are other issues to consider. such as majority, transparency, and confidence in the outcome of the election. Cary has the most PHDs per capita in our state for a city its size )

*Statement of Donald Frantz, Member of Cary Town Council*

March 12, 2009 Meeting of Cary Town Council
Transcribed by Andrew Silver from video recording at http://www.townofcary.org/med/video/video1.htm

I’d like to preface my comments just letting folks in the audience know that I was elected utilizing instant runoff voting. I’m actually the first candidate in the state of North Carolina to ever be elected utilizing instant runoff voting. So if you ever play trivial pursuit and that’s the question, then you know what the answer is. So I kind of know a thing or two about it and unfortunately I was the guinea pig. And It wasn’t really the best experience I ever had to go through. But those were the rules and we all played by them. There’s actually a gentleman sitting in the audience whom I do respect quite a bit that believes I won my election because of instant runoff voting, and while I would argue with him – you know – tooth and nail, he’s entitled to his opinion and I’ve got mine, and I really didn’t think there was much broken with our current system. But, you know, Hank, we always have to try something new.

There’s a number of factors to consider – very important factors to consider – when deciding what type of election we want to go with. There’s cost, voter turnout, participation, time. . .whatever. To me the number one concern is election integrity. If we can’t trust the election process we’ve got, I don’t care what it costs. I don’t care what the turnout is.

Instant runoff voting – the machines count the first vote. We all know on the first go round who got what. But then the votes are transported to the board of elections. They’re taken out of their locked box. They’re put in little baggies and sorted. and then when it’s time to count the ballots, they’re actually all pulled out of the bags and put on the table, and a bunch of different hands are in the pile, and you’re moving one over here and one over there. You’re getting the first and second place finishers out. You set them in one pile. You go through and you get the third place finishers, fourth place finishers. If they didn’t pick a second and third candidate, you put them in another pile.

You end up with all these piles on the table. And then you try to narrow it down to the non-top two vote getters that did pick a second or a third. And then you start trying to count those by hand. My election district, B, it’s a very small district in town. I’ve got 8 precincts. A little over 3000 votes were cast. And it took the better part of a day to hand count those ballots, and it took all of a day to hand count them and get the math right. When I left the process, I had won by 48 votes. An hour later to find out I was up by 25 votes, because somebody didn’t clear out a number on a calculator. To find out the next day I was up by 49 votes.

The numbers kept changing. I wasn’t very confident in what I was experiencing. I would feel a lot more confident about IRV if the machines could actually count the ballots, first, second, and third. When – after the ballots were hand counted and sorted and all that initial stuff was done, they go back in their baggies and back in their little boxes and what not. And then the elections director, by herself, recounted all those ballots in a room. No observers – I didn’t get to observe, put it that way. So, that was a big concern of mine, you know. I’m glad the – I mean I respect Cherie Poucher a lot. I had a great experience with her. I’m glad she doesn’t hate my guts, because I probably wouldn’t have won if she did.

We’ve heard that the machines can now somehow count the ballots, but they couldn’t count them two years ago. We’ve heard that the state is going to allow that. I’ve still got questions as far as – you know – where’s the software coming from? Who’s providing it? Is it something that Fairvote’s come up with? Is it something designed by a special interest group? Has it been tested, or are we a guinea pig now on can the machines count the ballots? I don’t know, but I don’t know that I want to subject three of my colleagues to this experiment. And actually I took exception to the word “experiment.” That just rubs me wrong.

I think IRV treats voters ballots unequally. Some ballots get counted twice. Some only get counted once. In 2005, in the primary election, I voted for one candidate. But as the runoff went on, I changed my vote. I voted for a different candidate come the final election, because I heard some things that changed my mind. I saw people in a different light. With IRV, I don’t have the option to change my mind. It assumes I am going to come back and cast my ballot for the same candidate. I can tell you the time that I didn’t do it.

There is some confusion as evidenced by our biennial survey. Obviously the majority of Cary citizens did find the experience pretty easy to understand and didn’t have that many problems with it. *But over 30% did find it somewhat confusing and over 20% found it very confusing *– or did not understand at all, I think is what it says here. When you come to show up to vote and you just have one box to mark I don’t know anybody that finds that confusing. So to me – even if you just confuse 10% of the people, that’s 10% too many. When we’re confusing 20% of the people, that’s really too many.

I do have some concerns with special interest groups that have been diving into this issue. I just – I appreciate the Cary citizens that have shown up to speak tonight. There’s issues of manipulation involved. My next election I’m worried about one of my opponents – I get one of my well-liked buddies in the community to run and we do this whole run on us “Vote for us 1-2” campaign, ensuring at least one of us wins. It actually happened in my race. One of the candidates contacted my other opponent to see did they want to run 1 and 2 together. Now thankfully that opponent said “Heck, no.” and then we talked about it and we decided that was not something we wanted to do. That concerns me.

Voter turnout. The argument for that is really weird. It’s we want to increase voter turnout, so let’s play with the way we elect people. Let’s change the process. Quite frankly – we just saw it in the last presidential election. If you want to increase voter turnout, get some good candidates to run. Most of the time you are voting for the lesser of two evils. The majority of candidates that we have to choose from these days suck, you know. The candidate is the one that motivates people to get out of bed or get off the couch and go to the polls and cast a vote. I’m not going to show up at the polls and go “Whoo! I get to mark 3 bubbles now instead of one.” It’s not inspiring me to vote, you know. But like we just saw Barack Obama. He inspired folks. He motivated folks. He got people to the polls. That was pretty impressive. I agree with Mr. Smith’s comment. You know, we want to increase voter participation, but yet we hold our elections in October when nobody’s looking for an election, and then we hold them in off years when we’re not running with state candidates or presidential candidates. “Election – what, that was yesterday?” Nobody knows. So if you want to have 50% voter turnout in the Cary council election let’s do it the same time as state races. We’ll do it in November.

Cost is a concern to me. Especially this year, given the budget, you know. We’re all going to have to make some really tough decisions. IRV is considerably cheaper than traditional runoffs. But, seeing that, in my research – trust me, I have researched it. When I had to go through this I had no idea what I was getting myself into, so I did a lot of research on IRV. Basically – I would estimate 90% of the elections I studied, the person who won the first go round won the second go round. It did not change the outcome. So if you really want to view the right election, give citizens one voice, one vote – do plurality. You know, you show up and you mark one bubble and you go home. The person with the most bubbles wins. If there’s a concern over 8 people running for the same office, then maybe we should consider setting a threshold. Instead of saying, “OK, well 50% – well, OK maybe you have to break 35 or 40 percent on the first go round, and if a candidate does, no instant runoff, no runoff. The election’s over. You got the most votes, you win.” But if there’s 5 people running and they all get 20% and one got 21% – I can see the need for some form of runoff system. I really can, and yes, instant runoff is going to be the cheapest, but with the other concerns I have, I just, I don’t know if it’s the way to go.

Durham is currently – the Durham board of elections is currently trying to convince their city council to go back to plurality elections. Ronald Gregory, who’s the chair of the Durham board of elections states *“The plurality method is the only method that ensures one vote, one election voting process,” *and he also (inaudible). My preference is to go to plurality elections. If there is some form – have a concern with multiple candidates and no clear winner then maybe we should look at some kind of threshold that they have to break.

# # #

Note – Cary, North Carolina ultimately decided to keep their majority elections with traditional 1-1 runoffs. They considered plurality but decided they wanted what they had before IRV.

April 13, 2009 Cary to Hold Public Hearing to Consider Changing Election Method

A Cary City Council election goes to traditional runoff in November 2009, no one from Cary says they wish they had IRV:

November 6, 2009 Jennifer Robinson Wins Run-Off in District A

http://www.carycitizen.com/2009/11/06/jenninfer-robinson-wins-run-off-in-district-a/

As previously reported, the October 6 election for Cary Town Council (District A) ended in a run-off between incumbent Jennifer Robinson and challenger Lori Bush. In October, Ms. Robinson garnered 49.9 percent of the vote to Lori Bush’s 42.3 percent. On November 3, Jennifer Robinson won her third term representing Cary’s largest district.

November 3 results:
Jennifer Robinson 53.76% 2,337 votes
Lori Bush 46.12% 2,005 votes
Write-in .12% 5 votes
Congratulations go out to Jennifer Robinson.

http://instantrunoff.blogspot.com/2010/07/don-frantz-only-person-elected-by.html

Best regards,
Joyce McCloy

As we have often repeated, IRV sounds good, but has unintended and unanticipated consequences.

<IRV: Not So Fast, No So Simple> <earlier New London Commentary>

Printer-friendly version – TheDay.comComplex voting proposal in charter criticized
By Matt Collette Day Staff Writer
Registrar raises issue of legality in two changes
New London – Several residents expressed concern – or at least confusion – over a proposed system where voters would rank mayor candidates at a public hearing Tuesday night on proposed charter changes.
Registrar of Voters Bill Giesing said he was concerned that the rank voting plan – which would allow for instant results rather than a runoff election at a later date – as well as one that would have four city councilors represent specific wards, would violate state law.
“I just want to bring this to your attention,” Giesing said. “I think this is something serious you should address.” He said communities are prohibited by state statute from defining wards.
David Hayes, who lives on Ocean Avenue, called rank voting a “totally unacceptable” way to determine who will be the mayor.
“There’s no point to it,” Hayes said. “Why go to something like this? Most people don’t understand it. Most people don’t want it.”
Charter Review Commission Chairman Robert Grills said rank voting would allow for the mayor to be selected by a majority of voters in the main election, when turnout is higher, than in runoff elections. It would also ensure that the winner would be the candidate supported by the majority of voters, not just the largest plurality, he said.
The meeting was supposed to start with an overview of the proposed changes, but the hearing began without a formal presentation because computer problems prevented Grills from loading a PowerPoint presentation.
“Most of you, it seems, have read most or all of the charter as we have put it forward,” Grills said before moving directly into the public hearing.
Grills said he expected that the commission would have another meeting to address concerns from the public hearing before handing its draft over to City Clerk Michael Tranchida and the City Council, which may put charter revisions up for a vote by the November election.
“I don’t think this should be rushed to the ballot in November,” said Dorothy Mansfield, another Ocean Avenue resident. “I’d rather see a fine, finished product with all the I’s dotted and T’s crossed.”
One member of the commission, Minerva Dudley-Cook, said she hoped the charter review process would not be rushed toward a November vote and instead take the full 16 months it was given to consider changes to the city charter.
“I don’t think we are where the chairman says we are,” Dudley-Cook said. “I think we should take the full 16 months.”

Report: Connecticut below average

This is good news! A Caltech/MIT Report measuring address errors in voter registration files places Connecticut below average in the number of bad addresses.

This is good news! A Caltech/MIT Report measuring address errors in voter registration files places Connecticut below average in the number of bad addresses. No link yet to the full report, but here is the story from Boston Review:<read>

Congratulations to elections officials to the Secretary of the State’s Office and local election officials.

Court Allows UConn/Dr. Shvartsman Test Of Nassau County, NY Voting Machines

Over the objections of the NY Board of Elections, The Supreme Court of the State of New York Nassau County, ordered the testing of voting machines by the University of Connecticut and Dr. Alex Shvartsman.

Over the objections of the NY Board of Elections, The Supreme Court of the State of New York Nassau County, ordered the testing of voting machines by the University of Connecticut and Dr. Alex Shvartsman.

Courthouse News Service <read>

A state Supreme Court judge ordered that the New York Board of Elections submit the electronic voting machines it approved for the September primaries to a testing facility in Connecticut. Nassau County and its Republican and Democratic Elections Commissioners claimed that the machine at issue, the ES&S DS-200, malfunctioned in Florida during the 2008 presidential elections.

The Court Order <read>

The petitioners seek to be able to continue using lever as opposed to electronic voting machines.  The petitioners challenge the New Yourk Elections and Modernization Act, the legality of the manner in which the New York State Board of Elections(“NYSBOE”) has implemented it…

The petitioners seek an odder expressly authorizing their experts to conduct testing…at their Connecticut facility.

The petitioners claim that the new machines proposed by the state are “gravely flawed and subject to technical malfunction and deliberate distortion and manipulation”

See the end of page 2 and the beginning of page 3 of the court order for the details on the UConn testing order.

Dr. Shvartsman’s testimony <read>

Opinion: Dr. Shvartsman has done excellent work in testing voting machines for the State of Connecticut, Nassau County has made a good choice of testing facilities.  We agree that all computer systems are vulnerable, however, so are lever machines. We like voter created paper ballots with public counting by optical scanner, followed by strong independent audits — it is about the only reasonable, safe voting system available, with our without the Help America Vote Act (HAVA).

CA Prop 14: Unsafe at any but greed?

Winsted, Connecticut native, Ralph Nader tells us why Prop 14 is good for big business and unhealthy for democracy. We place the misguided voter support of Prop 14 on our “list of good sounding ideas for fighting the last election.

Winsted, Connecticut native Ralph Nader tells why Prop 14 is good for big business and unhealthy for democracy <read>

Big Business interests shamelessly dealt our already depleted democracy a devastating blow by misleading California voters into approving Proposition 14, without their opponents being able to reach the people with rebuttals. This voter initiative provides that the November elections in that state for members of Congress and state elective offices are reserved only for the top two vote-garnering candidates in the June primary.

There are no longer any party primaries per se, only one open primary. Voters can vote for any candidate on the ballot for any office. Presidential candidates are still under the old system.

Since the two major parties are the wealthiest and have the power of incumbency and favored rules, the “top two” as this “deform” is called, will either be a Republican and a Democrat or, in gerrymandered districts, two Republicans or two Democrats.

Goodbye to voter choices for smaller third party and independent candidates on the ballot in November who otherwise would qualify, with adequate signature petitions, for the ballot. Goodbye to new ideas, different agendas, candidates and campaign practices. The two Party tyranny is now entrenched in California to serve the barons of big business who outspent their opponents twenty to one for tv and radio ads and other publicity.

To seal this voter incarceration by the two-party duopoly, Proposition 14 decreed that even write-in votes in November by contrarian citizens could no longer be counted.

We are not from California and cannot vouch for the details leading to the passage of Prop 14 as articulated by Mr. Nader.  However, we can add to his arguments our vision of the dilemma facing the intelligent voter on primary day: Faced with five, ten, or thirty candidates for an office: Who do you vote for, your favorite, or one you think might have a chance at being in the top two; one that might be more acceptable than others the poll say have a chance? It is just another, perhaps more complex crap shoot.

Nader goes on to articulate the inaccurate information given to voters about the proposition.  And in a side note points to one of the concerns some candidates have with mail-in voting:

The final vote was 53.7% for and 46.3% against. The pro side advertisements, distorted as they were, reached millions of more voters than did the penurious opposition.

Curiously, if the by-mail voters were taken out of the equation, more voters who went to the polls on election day voted against Prop 14 (52%) than for it (48%). Winger suggests this difference may reflect the fact that election day voters benefited from the fuller public discussion of the Proposition 14, including its negatives, in the two weeks before election day.

We attribute much of the misguided voter support of Prop 14 to its place on our “list of good sounding ideas for fighting the last election”.  That is, the list of ideas that sound like they would have cured a recent disappointing result, yet are in reality just a different set of dice for a future crap shoot, with the baggage of untended consequences.

Update: Thanks to VotingNews we have this link to an analysis by a mathematics professor who calls Proposition 14 a Primary Jungle: <read>

This seems reasonable, and a “jungle primary” certainly sounds exciting. But in judging an election system, you must ask how well the system will produce a true societal choice. By that measure, the jungle primary has serious drawbacks…

These are not theoretical concerns.

France’s 2002 presidential election used a system similar to the jungle primary. Because there was a large number of left-wing candidates in the initial round of voting, the unpopular incumbent, Jacques Chirac, and the extremely right-wing Jean-Marie Le Pen led in the polls. Each was supported by fewer than one-fifth of the voters, but that was enough to make them the only two candidates in the final round. There was widespread dissatisfaction with these choices, and slogans such as “vote with a clothespin on your nose” appeared.

Every election system has drawbacks. Because the jungle primary system can prevent large portions of voters from having an acceptable choice in a general election and can determine a winner by something other than voters’ decisions, it seems inferior to the system it replaces and to a traditional open primary. Hopefully, California will discard the top-two primary system and consider different and better options.

The Day, Susan Bysiewicz, and we agree: No IRV for New London

The Day points to the complexity of issues for voters with several charter changes combined, especially Instant Runoff Voting (IRV), while referencing the Secretary of the State’s objections that IRV cannot be counted by our optical scanners and that IRV is currently illegal in Connecticut.

New London is considering a charter revision to include an elected strong mayor, Instant Runoff Voting, and other changes.  We oppose IRV because it is complex to calculate for multi-district elections, confusing/misunderstood by many voters, and does not provide the touted benefits. Others point to the added costs. The Day points to the complexity of issues for voters with several charter changes combined, especially Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) , while referencing the Secretary of the State’s objections that IRV cannot be counted by our optical scanners and that IRV is currently illegal in Connecticut.

The Day: Make elected mayor clear charter choice on ballot <read>

Please New London, don’t make the same mistake twice.

Two years ago the city missed its chance to give voters a fair say on whether they wanted an elected mayor in place of a contracted city manager, sullying the ballot question with other divisive issues.

Now, it looks like the same thing could happen again. Don’t allow it. Just ask voters plain and simple – do you support an elected mayor as chief executive officer of the city? That’s all it takes. It doesn’t have to be as difficult as a Rubik’s Cube. But that’s what it’s turning out to be…

The charter review panel, headed by Robert Grills, did thoroughly examine the directly elected mayor concept and endorsed it, but they mired it with a boatload of other recommendations. And while the charter group has been a diligent, dedicated and progressive-thinking commission, its work will be for naught if it is not quickly reined in…

Questionable proposals include the so-called “rank voting” or instant run-off system for electing a mayor. Yes, commissioners endorse the idea of electing the city’s chief executive to a four-year term and giving the mayor veto and appointment powers, but they’ve muddied it by tying it to rank voting rather than using the traditional system in which the person with the most votes wins.

Allowing voters to rank mayoral candidates one, two, three, etc., may be a progressive and even noble idea, but Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz thinks it is illegal. State statutes only require a winning candidate to garner a plurality of votes, said Ms. Bysiewicz. On top of that, rank voting doesn’t work on the state’s new optical scan machines; poll workers will be manually counting ballots.

Election officials in Connecticut have shown they are not up to the challenge of accurately counting votes during the post-election audits. How well would they do in a charged atmosphere of a close IRV election?

No-Excuse Absentee Voting – Unintended Consequences

As the Connecticut legislature, Secretary of the State candidates, and our current Secretary of the State contemplate following Florida’s lead in expanding mail-in voting, including considering no-excuse absentee voting, we have this cautionary tale from Florida.
This is another fast-food-like voting issue. We like no excuse absentee voting, just like we enjoy fast, fatty food – the problem is that they both have unintended consequences. Yet, most voters and many eaters are not aware of the known risks.

As the Connecticut legislature, Secretary of the State candidates, and our current Secretary of the State contemplate following Florida’s lead in expanding mail-in voting, including considering no-excuse absentee voting, we have this cautionary tale from Florida.

This is another fast-food-like voting issue.  We like no excuse absentee voting, just like we enjoy fast, fatty food – the problem is that they both have unintended consequences.  Yet, most voters and many eaters are not aware of the known risks.

Voting by mail has increased in popularity, but has unintended consequences <read>
Absentee voters have changed the election cycle

By: Brendan McLaughlin

TAMPA – Absentee ballots are flying off the presses and into people’s homes in record numbers. Hillsborough county will send out possibly four times more ballots than they did just ten years ago.

A main reason according to Hillsborough County’s election chief of staff, Craig Latimer is convenience.

“In today’s world people are busy. They may not be able to take time off to be at the polls on Election Day” said Latimer.

Florida’s rules for absentee voting were loosened in 2000 after the close and chaotic presidential race of that year. Since then every county in the Bay Area has seen dramatic increases in the number of those voting by mail.

USF political science professor, Susan MacManus says candidates and their campaigns like and encourage early voting.

“It does lock in voters early and let’s you spend the last day of the campaign micro targeting those who haven’t yet voted” said MacManus.

Absentee voting by mail has its risks for candidates and voters. The method is considered more vulnerable to mischief and outright fraud. In 2009, voters in a special State Senate election were persuaded to send their ballots to a private mail box instead of the elections office in an apparent attempt to void their votes. But more often the problem is human error.

In 2008, the Hillsborough elections office under then supervisor, Buddy Johnson misplaced 846 absentee ballots. They were found in an office more than a week after the election. Craig Latimer points out that since he took over as chief of staff changes have been made.

“Daily those ballots are brought to this office and stored in a secure area under surveillance camera twenty four hours a day. That can’t happen again” promised Latimer.

Voters also take a risk in returning their absentee ballots too early because a lot can happen in the last days of a campaign. MacManus says the downside for the voter is if they vote early via absentee or early voting and something dramatic breaks toward the end of the campaign, they can’t change their mind.

Here is a recent quote from our current Secretary of the State, from the Litchfield County Times: <read>

Ms. Bysiewicz said she also would “love” to see early voting in Connecticut, in which a ballot is mailed to voters weeks before the election and they can complete it and then submit the ballot to their local town hall.

Reports have indicated that it has boosted turnout and parents will talk to their children about how they plan to vote.

Ms. Bysiewicz said it produced positive results in Florida and North Carolina during the 2008 presidential election.

It is interesting to contemplate Connecticut following Florida’s lead in this area when the risks are known.  If we do go this way, there truly will be noexcuse for unintended consequences.

There other reasons to be concerned with large scale absentee voting, along with frequent tales of problems across the country, see recent posts here, here, and here.

Update: 8/23/2010 – Early Voting expensive in Florida <read>

according to Florida’s Division of Elections, statewide, only 361,615 people took advantage of the two week early voting period.

That’s just a little bit more than 3% of all registered voters. That’s right 3.25% to be exact…

When you break it down by the tax dollars needed to man these locations. Tax payers pay between $35 and $56 dollars per voter for early voting or an average of $21.29 a voter county wide.

In Broward County it breaks down to $33.16 per voter for early voting.

In Monroe County, 1599 voters took advantage of early voting, costing a total of $15,640, or $9.78 per voter.

What do [Connecticut] voters think?

A new Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project Report provides insight into the opinions of voters on several voting reform issues. We comment on Connecticut specific results and editorialize on voting integrity implications of the survey. We recommend the survey and commentary be contemplated by activists, legislators, and future Secretaries of the State.

A new Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project Report provides insight into the opinions of voters on several voting reform issues. We comment on Connecticut specific results and editorialize on voting integrity implications of the survey.We recommend the survey and commentary be contemplated by activists, legislators, and future Secretaries of the State.

Voter Opinions about Election Reform: Do They Support Making Voting More Convenient? <read>

The thrust of they survey is a state by state assessment of the level of support for several voting reforms. We find the National summary interesting and somewhat surprising:

Overall Support for Election Reform
Require [Govt Photo] ID 75.6%
Make Election Day a holiday 57.5%
Auto-register all citizens to vote 48.3%
Election Day Registration 43.7%
Election Day to Weekend 41.8%
Absentee voting over Internet 30.1%
Vote by Mail 14.7%

We will have more to say about the Connecticut Results and provide CTVotersCount Commentary after the conclusions from the report:

Conclusions

Our analysis of the American voting public’s support for the many potential election reforms provides a variety of important insights into the potential direction of innovations in the electoral process in the near future. First, we found that some other reforms have mixed support. These include attitudes toward automatic voter registration, Election Day voter registration, and moving Election Day to a weekend. These reforms do not have majority support among all voters in the United States but there are some states where these reforms do have majority support and could be implemented. Second, we found that Internet voting and voting-by-mail did not receive a great deal of support from American voters. There was no state where Internet voting was supported by a majority of voters and there were no states that do not already have expanded vote by mail Washington and Oregon) where expanded vote by mail had majority support. Finally, we found that a majority of Americans support two reforms — requiring showing photo identification (overwhelming support) and making election Day a holiday (bare majority support). These two reforms have strong support nationally and amajority of support in most of the states. Americans, in general, are more interested in the one reform that would promote security, requiring photo identification, than any of the conveniencevoting reforms that would improve the accessibility to the voting process.

Our findings are indicative of where the public stands today, with what they know aboutthese election reforms today. These results do not mean that election reforms with substantial support from voters are inevitable, that reforms without substantial support will never be enacted, or that or that voters actually have strong or well-formed opinions about the potential ramifications of reform. Still, the patterns we discover here have implications for current politics and for the likelihood of election reform in future years.

Partisanship, for instance, is strongly associated with support for and opposition to virtually every reform proposal. To a large degree, these popular reform attitudes tend to map onto the attitudes of legislators, both at the national and state levels, and as with most attitudes in legislatures these days, the partisan divisions are likely stronger among legislators than among their electoral supporters. Although there are exceptions, Democratic lawmakers tend to be the advocates of most of the reforms we explore in this paper, and that support tends to be mirrored, in a muted fashion, among the electorate. (The exceptions are requiring photo identification and Internet voting.)

Younger voters tend to support the reforms studied here, except all-mail voting and moving Election Day to a weekend. What we cannot judge is whether this is a cross-sectional or a cohort effect. That is, we cannot tell whether younger voters are more likely to support reforms because young people are inherently prone to support making it easier to vote, or because they have lived more of their lives surrounded by easy conveniences and electronic appliances. If the latter, and if reforms tend to be more likely when voters support them, then it may be a matter of time before support for some of these reforms, such as voter identificationand making Election Day a holiday, become irresistible. If the former, then there are no obvious future trends favoring or opposing reform.

Finally, the findings here provide an interesting insight into how the adoption of weakly supported (or even strongly opposed) reforms may eventually win over voters. Note that respondents were overwhelmingly opposed to vote-by-mail, except in Oregon and Washington — one state that has long had the practice, and the other which has recently transitioned to it. Unfortunately, we do not have evidence of attitudes toward vote-by-mail in these two states prior to its adoption, but it is hard to believe that residents in Oregon and Washington were wildly out of step with voters in other states, even though they may have supported it more than average. For all Oregon and most Washington voters, voting by mail is “the way it’s done,” and voters there by-and-large support it like voters in no other state. And in general, now that we have benchmarked all states according to their voters’ attitudes toward electoral reform, it will be possible in the future to answer causal questions concerning public attitudes toward electoral practices. Are states whose citizens most support particular electoral reforms more likely to enact them? Do voters in states that adopt reform become more accepting of those reforms after they have been adopted and put into place?

Here are some other items in the report that we found particularly interesting:

The slow pace of election reform in national and state legislatures is no doubt due to multiple causes, including the low salience of election reform in the face of other governing crises, the inertia of elected officials who have succeeded under current electoral rules, economic factors, and uncertainties about the political consequences and political costs of each reform.

The factor we focus on in this article is public opinion. Based on data derived from a unique national survey, we show that a major hurdle many election reforms face is public opinion. Only one prominent reform proposal, requiring photo identification, is supported overwhelmingly nationwide. Other reforms—reforms that are justified based on convenience— at best divide the public, and are generally opposed by them…

There were, generally unsurprising, party and demographic differences in voter preferences.  What was surprising was that, for the most part, the differences were marginal, with voters generally agreeing across the political, age, racial, educational, and income lines.  For the details, see table 3 on page 29 of the <report .pdf>

Connecticut Results

Connecticut tracked very closely with the National averages:

National Connecticut
Require [Govt Photo] ID 75.6% 72%
Make Election Day a holiday 57.5% 57%
Auto-register all citizens to vote 48.3% 44%
Election Day Registration 43.7% 43%
Election Day to Weekend 41.8% 44%
Absentee voting over Internet 30.1% 31%
Vote by Mail 14.7% 12%

We looked at several other states near Connecticut and around the Nation. We find, in general, that other states varied more than Connecticut from the National averages.

CTVotersCount Commentary

The primary focus of CTVotersCount is on voting integrity. We also consider total costs and the implications that voting reforms would have on the objective of our democracy flourishing. Through our filters we comment:

  • We are not ready to celebrate the lack of public support for reforms that we conditionally against(*), such as vote by mail and internet voting. Nor are we ready to give up on reforms that we are conditionally for(*). such as election day registration and automatic registration. As the report points out, voters well educated on these items might change their conclusions. As we have pointed out, fast-food is not good for us, but despite lots of evidence and education it remains popular. When it comes to voting reforms we see little education and usually a lack of evidence or balance available to the public.
  • We caution against recommending a reform or opposing a reform based on public perception reported in a single, or several surveys providing simple reform descriptions. However, public support and perception is an important factor worthy of consideration. This report should provide caution to legislators and Secretaries of State who believe there is a strong degree of public support for some of these reforms.
  • We repeatedly pointed to surveys, some a generation old, supporting complex reforms such a national popular vote and instant runoff voting. We wonder what the result would have been, if these reforms had been included in this survey. Yet, it is risky to decide complex issues based on simple surveys – we suspect most surveys of the public would support cutting taxes, cutting the deficit, with a majority also supporting almost any list of proposals to maintain and increase spending on specific items.
  • CTVotersCount has not taken a position on voter id. It is clear from the survey that voter id is supported by a significant majority of voters and it is also a relatively simple reform to understand. Yet, caution is still prudent – it does have implications on ballot access that may be complex and less generally understood.
  • Optimistically, we note, as the survey did, that the voter id preference may well indicate that the public is more concerned with and supportive of reforms associated with voting integrity, while significantly less concerned with increasing the convenience of voting. Perhaps this is our bias celebrating.
  • We wonder how the survey would have come out if voters were asked voters about requiring a paper ballot, an independent post-election audit, transparent close election recounts, the preservation of the anonymous/secret ballot, public campaign financing, corporate/lobbyist contributions, or stronger National minimum standards in these areas etc.?  What would the public do first? Where would voters be willing to make expenditures and investments?

Update 8/19/2010 More Research:  How Polling Places Can Affect Your Vote How Polling Places [and early voting] Can Affect Your Vote <read>

Their first finding was hardly a shocker: While distance to the polling place did influence the likelihood of voting, the impact was much greater for households in which no one owned a car. But the researchers were surprised by a seemingly counterintuitive statistic: Moving the location of a polling place actually increased voter turnout…

A follow-up laboratory experiment confirmed their theory that the voters had been “primed” with the idea of schooling. Participants shown images of a school were more likely to support increased education funding than those who had seen photos of a church. In contrast, those who viewed the house of worship were more likely to support an initiative to limit stem-cell research — a favorite issue of the religious right.

This same dynamic was documented in a study published earlier this year in the journal Political Psychology. Abraham Rutchick of California State University, Northridge, found that during a 2006 election in South Carolina, a proposed constitutional amendment prohibiting gay marriage was supported by 83 percent of voters who cast their ballots in churches, as opposed to 81.5 percent of those who voted elsewhere...

“There are good reasons to adopt early voting,” he and his colleagues concluded in the journal Political Science & Politics. “Ballot counting is more accurate, it can save administrative costs and headaches and voters express a high level of satisfaction with the system. If a jurisdiction adopts early voting in the hopes of boosting turnout, however, it is likely to be disappointed. We find that early voting reforms have, at best, a modest effect on turnout.”

Priscilla Southwell of the University of Oregon, Eugene, came to a similar conclusion in a 2009 issue of the Social Science Journal. She reports that the effect of voting by mail in primary and general elections is “positive but fairly minimal.” However, the format apparently increases voter participation “in low-stimulus special elections where the context is a single candidate race, or when a single or a few ballot measures are involved.”..

Update 9/10/2010: MD: Little interest shown in early voting <read>

Despite spending millions of dollars on early voting this year, it appears that only about 2 percent of Marylanders will take advantage of the new option before the primary election…

Local election officials say early voting has been a success, but has caused a few problems, primarily with staffing and budgets.

Like in the other districts, Baltimore city Election Director Armstead B.C. Jones Sr. said his employees worked Saturday and on Labor Day to staff early-voting centers and the local election office. He said employees have been putting in 12-hour days during early voting, and are being paid overtime and holiday wages.

“It’s really tough on us,” Jones said. “On Election Day it’s bad enough. It’s just spreading everyone real thin, but the job is getting done.”

As of Wednesday, 5,604 of the city’s 319,342 eligible voters had voted early at the polls, or 1.75 percent, according to the state Board of Elections.

Jones expects to spend about $1 million on early voting this month and before the Nov. 2 general election.

(*) When we say we are “Conditionally Against” a proposition, we mean that nobody has proposed a realistic safe way to accomplish the proposition. We remain open to the possibility that a means may be found that would pass the scrutiny of the majority of computer scientists, security experts, election officials, and voting integrity advocates.

When we say we are “Conditionally For” a proposition, we mean that other states have safe implementations of the proposition or computer scientists, security experts, election officials, and voting integrity advocates have recommended a safe solution. We caution that a particular implementation or law may not meet a reasonable standard of safety.

Who are you going to believe? Scientists or Vendors?

“Enter online voting vendors looking to break into the market on the backs of these two groups. They ride in to save the day with big promises and high-tech solutions. Security becomes little more than sale pitch, like shiny chrome or electronic gadgetry in a new car. ‘You want security – we got security.’…Vendors need to stand in the corner with bankers and oil companies. Just whose elections are these anyway?”

Dan McCrea spells it out on the Huffington Post: Online Voting: All That Glitters Is Not Gold (Unless You’re a Vendor) <read>.  To their credit Huffington Post published McCrea’s article, countering a recent vendor puff piece they ran:

Voting over the internet seems like a cool idea whose time has come. But, it depends on who’s doing the talking.

A computer scientist friend calls it whack-a-mole, the way online voting pitchmen keep popping up to announce they’ve fixed security problems and voting over the internet is now secure. You look at their plans and find they’re as full of holes as ever.

You knock down one story and another pops up. Whack – it’s back. Whack. It’s back again. The latest was here on Huffington Post last week, in Sheila Shayon’s seemingly-harmless puff piece for the online voting vendor, Scytl, “Digital Democracy: Scytl, MySociety Secure Funding.”

Ms. Shayon blithely pitched Scytl’s “secure solutions for electoral modernization” and the news that Scytl had closed on a $9.2m investment, “led by Balderton Capital, one of Europe’s largest venture capital investors.” They estimate the online voting market at $1.5 billion. Rival vendor, Everyone Counts, estimates the market at $16 billion over the next five years.

Calling it safe does not make it safe.  Using the challenges facing those we would like to help vote, does not mean it would actually be a good idea:

But of course vendors say it is secure – and going to be very profitable. Scientists, on the other hand, say it’s not secure – and the very architecture of the internet makes secure online voting almost impossible today.

Another computer scientist friend describes email voting, the most common way to vote on the internet, this way: You’re in a stadium with eighty thousand random people. It’s time to vote. You write your selections on a post card in pencil, don’t use an envelope, and pass your card down your row to be collected.

It might work. You could have a great election. Your vote might count just as you marked your card. But confidence pretty much sucks – for a pile of obvious reasons, from innocent mishap to conspiratorial fraud to foreign-based cyber war.

Playing on public emotion, vendors have picked two special needs groups to “help” by designing online voting schemes for them. The first group is military and overseas voters, referred to as UOCAVA voters because they fall under special provisions of the federal Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act. The second group is voters with disabilities.

McCrea completes the case by referencing Scientists with objections and no money to make:

Who agrees online voting is not secure? Pretty much everyone who isn’t trying to make money on it:

Congress:..
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)…
Computer Technologists’ Statement on Internet Voting…
The Government Accountability Office (GAO)…
A comment on the May 2007 DoD report on Voting Technologies for UOCAVA Citizens, by several renowned computer scientists…